Due to unforeseen commitments, John Manley will not be taking over MonmouthParkBlog after all.

That means the site is available — any racing fan with some time on his/her hands this summer want to pick up an established site with a decent little revenue stream?  Please e-mail me if interested.

After three years’ stewardship of MonmouthParkBlog, I have decided to pass the baton.

John Manley will be taking over the site ahead of the upcoming Monmouth racing season.  John is not as handsome as me, but he is a veteran racing journalist who has written for the Irish Echo, and last summer he contributed a fine feature on the Sleeter family to MPB.  John and I met for lunch recently, and I was impressed with his plans and ideas — With Manley as the new sheriff, MPB readers can look forward to more true journalism pieces and fewer idle musings.

As for me, I’m not leaving the blogosphere.  I’ve started up a new site to chronicle my (so far futile) attempts to qualify for the National Handicapping Championship: www.redrockorbust.blogspot.com.  I’d also like to pen a guest piece or two for MPB, if Manley deems me worthy.

So to all readers, I say farewell, many thanks, and keep in touch!

Terry

Atomic Rain worked yesterday at Palm Meadows, traveling 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat, handily.

According to trainer Kelly Breen, the horse may next run in the Sam F. Davis Handicap at Tampa Bay Downs, a Grade III affair to be run on Saturday, February 14.  The $225K race has in recent years become relevant for Kentucky Derby prospects, as horses such as Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday, and Smooth Air have competed.

Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie both worked out today (January 18), according to my trusty Daily Racing Form e-mail alerts. Atomic Rain breezed 4 furlongs from the gate in a leisurely 52:00, while West Side Bernie went 5 furlongs, handily, in a snappy 1:00:05. Both workouts were at Palm Meadows, the training complex near Gulfstream Park in Florida.

Last I chatted with trainer Kelly Breen, he was pointing West Side Bernie for the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Saturday January 31. I do not know who else will show up in that race, but given West Side Bernie’s accomplishments so far and this latest workout, he figures to be a strong contender.

I am hoping to post a Q&A regarding both Kentucky Derby prospects with co-owner George Hall later this week.

Tough beat for Atomic Rain today.   He stumbled slightly at the break, contended for the lead with a 26-1 shot for much of the race, made the lead on the far turn, but got beat when perfect-trip Free Country snuck through along the rail and held on.  The stumble wasn’t terrible and the fractions weren’t overly grueling, so Atomic Rain could have won, but it was a useful effort for an ‘09 debut.

Man that Gulfstream rail is golden at 1 1/8 miles.  Desormeaux’s trip on Free Country today reminded me of Cool Coal Man’s Fountain of Youth win last year, when The Kid similarly parlayed pole position into a rail-skimming win.

Regarding Atomic Rain’s Kentucky Derby hopes, I think today’s effort fell somewhere between inconclusive and mildly positive.  The race won’t put him on anyone’s top 10 prospect list, but he ran well and fought until the end despite some adversity, so he certainly is a candidate to move forward.

Trainer Kelly Breen said it was “bittersweet” that Atomic Rain ran well but didn’t win.  Atomic Rain appeared fine after the race but Breen said he’ll take a few days to see how the horse is doing before mapping out a plan.  With West Side Bernie pointed for the Jan. 31 Holy Bull stakes at Gulfstream, Breen said one possibility is to separate the horses and ship Atomic Rain to Tampa Bay Downs.

Coming up next: Q&A with George Hall, co-owner of Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie.

Atomic Rain is entered in the 6th race at Gulfstream on Thursday, a $42K allowance race for three-year-olds to be contested at 1 1/8 miles.  He’s listed as the 5-2 morning line favorite and will break from post 4 in the eight-horse field.

The projected favoritism appears legitimate. Atomic Rain’s most recent 88 Beyer fig is the best in the field and he has been working well.  He also has the highest earnings of the group and shows the only graded stakes placing.

Also notable is the presence of John Velazquez in the irons.  Kelly Breen has trained primarily in the Garden State, and when he has had horses good enough to ship for stakes I’ve known him to give a leg up to fellow Jersey Guys Joe Bravo or Stewart Elliott.  Johnny V. is one of the top 5 riders in the country — him taking the Atomic Rain mount (after Edgar Prado rode him in November) doesn’t give a 3-length head start or anything, but it does show that right here, right now, people think this might be a serious racehorse.

While Atomic Rain looks best on paper, of course he still has to go out and win the race, or at least run well in defeat, to keep Kentucky Derby hopes afloat.  I think #7 Pressure Point (6-1) will be his biggest threat on Thursday — he’s been working well, his pedigree suggests he’ll like stretching out in distance, and the Maker/Leparoux connex won a race on Saturday.

The Daily Racing Form reports that Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie are among the top Florida-based 3-year-olds. Trained by the “relatively unknown” Kelly Breen, the two are listed in no particular order along with Big Drama, Beethoven, Break Water Edison, Capt. Candyman Can, Charitable Man, Rocketing Returns, Silent Valor, and Well Positioned in a “highly unofficial” early ranking. The Florida contingent appears to be lacking in quality compared with the Kentucky Derby hopefuls stabled in Dubai, and new Sunshine State contenders are likely to emerge from maiden and allowance races, the paper reported.

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, I have decided to cast aside my seasonal blogging dormancy and stay active this winter.

With that in mind, and with just four+ months until the 2009 Kentucky Derby, MonmouthParkBlog is “adopting” two horses with Oceanport connections and Louisville aspirations — Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie.

Both soon-to-be 3 year olds are owned by George and Lori Hall and trained by Kelly Breen.

Atomic Rain broke his maiden at Monmouth Park back in June, and after an extended break, finished a distant second at 14-1 in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in late November.  That runner-up effort, to the highly regarded Old Fashioned, prompted DRF columnist Mike Watchmaker to list Atomic Rain as one of his seven under-the-radar Derby prospects.

West Side Bernie, the more experienced of the two runners at 4-2-1-0, broke his maiden at Monmouth in August.  He then went on to win the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile in September, finish sixth in the BC Juvenile (beaten only 3 lengths), and place second in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot last month.  He’s banked $232,000 so far, much of it in all-important graded stakes earnings.

Realistically, my bet would be that neither horse makes it into the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 2, and the chances of both getting in are extraordinarily slim.  This curmudgeonly assessment is not at all a knock on the horses, but rather, an objective reflection of just how difficult it is to get to the Kentucky Derby.  In 2008, there were 448 horses nominated for the Triple Crown, yet the Derby gate fits only 20, or less than 5%.  Obviously it is a daunting challenge to manage a young, still-developing horse to out-earn more than 95% of his peers while staying in one piece physically — like a high school kid applying to Yale or a college baller hoping to make the NBA, most times it just don’t happen.

Or as Judge Smails famously noted in Caddyshack, the world needs ditchdiggers, too.

But from a journalistic standpoint, that’s what can make this fun and interesting.  Win or lose, make it to the Derby or drop off the trail early, I hope my chronicles of Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie can capture at least some taste of the drama along the way.

I’m generally a try-to-beat-the-favorite kind of guy when it comes to racing, but I haven’t been that way with Curlin.   I’ve respected him as the real deal for some time now; I don’t bet on him at minuscule prices, but I don’t bet against him, either.

However, I think he gets beat tomorrow.  I wouldn’t even be surprised if he’s off the board.  Among other things, his last few races haven’t been terribly impressive; the ship to California and first-time Pro-Ride are question marks; and he faces a deep and reasonably accomplished field.  Equine champions just don’t stay invincible forever.  For a rough parallel, look at Cigar, the champion horse in the mid-1990s — in his last race, the 1996 BC Classic, he finished third at 3-5.  Could happen again tomorrow.

To beat him, I see myself using Casino Drive (10-1 ML), Tiago (15-1), and Go Between (8-1) in multi-race exotics.

Other ideas:

I like Church Service (10-1) in the Marathon.  His best Beyer fig is competitive here, and he may save all the ground from the pole position with Prado — the comment lines of 9 of his last 12 races note he was wide.  I also like that he’s fresh as a daisy for this, coming off a two-month respite while several of his key rivals have had less than a month off.

Pioneerof the Nile (15-1) is an intriguing bomber in the Juvy.  I like the switch to Albarado, as it appears Desormeaux moved too soon in his last race.  He has a tough post (10) and it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of early speed to set up his late run, but I think he’ll go off north of 20-1.

Grand Couturier (6-1) looks strong in the Turf.  I think he’s been managed nicely in 2008 to peak for this race, and he gets a fairly cozy inside slot (3).  Euros are a wildcard in here, but GC (a native Euro himself) just may be good enough.

Lastly, I’m gonna take a look at Drum Major (6-1) and especially Roi Maudit (15-1) at Belmont.  Roi Maudit has underachieved but I think he can break through here at a big price.

I have several parimutuel ideas percolating in my head for Saturday, but I just can’t seem to get fired up about anything tomorrow.  Nevertheless, I’ll spout off.

Indian Blessing (2-1 ML) looks like the one to beat in the Sprint tomorrow, but I wouldn’t touch her at short odds.  Intangaroo is logical from off the pace, but I suspect she’ll be a wise-guy play and go off well below her 9-2 ML.  I saw Zaftig (8-1) beat Indian Blessing back in June at Belmont, but this is her first race back — she’s been working well but I think she’s dicey coming off the layoff, outside of NY for the first time and on synthetic for the first time.

I always find BC turf races extra tough to handicap because of the Euro factor — I just don’t know much about the racing over there, so oftentimes a 15-1 Euro looks as good to me as a 5-1 Euro.  That said, only 3 of the 12 horses entered in the Juvie Fillies Turf come from across the pond, so I’ll have some confidence in selecting NY-based Consequence (8-1).  I think upside is as or more important than past performances in these races, and Consequence looks like she has a bright future ahead of her.

I’m not a big Mike Smith fan, so anytime I see him 2-1 in a big field (like he is with Stardom Bound in the Juvie Fillies), I’ll take a shot against him.  I think C.S. Silk (15-1) and Evita Argentina (also 15-1) are plausible upsetters.

I’ve always thought Wait a While was a bit overrated, so I’ll take a shot against her as the 3-1 ML fave in the F&M Turf.  I like Dynaforce (6-1) and two Euros, Folk Opera (10-1) and Halfway to Heaven (4-1)

Zenyatta (3-5) looks like the real deal in the dumbly named “Ladies Classic”.  Cocoa Beach (8-1) has the best chance to overturn the apple cart, as I see it.

Coming up tomorrow: my plan to recoup this year’s stock market losses with Saturday BC winners.